Election results

I’m at least somewhat happy after last night:

  • President Obama won reelection, winning at least 303 electoral votes (right now, he’s ahead in Florida but it hasn’t been called yet) and he’s also ahead in the popular vote (by about 2.6 million votes right now).
  • Democrats widened their majority in the Senate –it was 51 Dem, 47 Rep, 2 Other (with both caucusing with Democrats), now it’s 52 D, 45 R, 2 Other (one will continue to caucus with Democrats, the other is new but leans Democratic) with one race still undecided (the Democrat, Heitkamp, is slightly ahead).
  • A person who I really like, Elizabeth Warren, won her Senate Race replacing a Republican and becoming the first female Senator in Massachusetts.
  • It looks like Democrats will gain a few seats in the House–the breakdown was 193 D, 242 R at the beginning of the last term and 190 D, 240 R before the election (5 seats were vacant); right now it is 192 D, 232 R with not all races decided.

Obviously this is not a great night for a liberal like me, but it’s as good as I expected and better than I feared.

I haven’t looked at all the ballot questions, but I did look at the ones that concerned same-sex marriage and they give good news: same-sex marriage won in Maine and Maryland, is ahead in Washington, and a bill to ban same-sex marriage lost in Minnesota. After Massachusetts opponents railed against activist judges. Then same-sex marriage was approved by some legislatures, so opponents started complaining that there should be put to popular vote because same-sex marriage was always voted down in such votes. Now that some states have approved same-sex marriage with popular vote–I wonder what opponents will say now.

Now look at how two predictors did. Nate Silver predicted that Obama would win 313-225 in electoral votes and 50.8%-48.3% of the popular vote–right now it’s 303-206 and 50-48% (with Silver getting all the states correct, except possibly Florida where Obama leads but hasn’t been declared the winner). How about that guy who decided that the polls were skewed? His predictions: Romeny would win with 275-263 in electoral votes and 51-48% in the popular vote . Oops, I guess the results must be skewed also.

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